Wood Mackenzie research models EU gas import scenarios to 2050, finding a nearly 1,000 bcm gap between low and high domestic production cases
New Wood Mackenzie research has modelled three EU domestic gas production scenarios to 2050 to assess future EU gas import reliance, finding a cumulative gap of close to 1,000 billion cubic metres (bcm) between the low and high cases. According to the report, “What could domestic gas do for EU energy security?”, without new field investment EU gas import volumes will exceed 98% of consumption by 2050. The gap between doing nothing and maximising domestic production potential is roughly three years of current EU gas demand, with the outcome dependent on fiscal stability, permitting reform, and exploration success in the Black Sea and East Mediterranean.
Current EU Gas Import Levels
The EU imports 85% of the gas it consumes today, a share expected to stay broadly flat through the early 2030s. However, with Norwegian supply expected to come off plateau in the 2030s, North African volumes facing domestic demand pressure, and Russian pipeline gas being phased out, LNG is filling the gap. Its share of EU supply could rise from around 40% today to 63% by 2050, with 77% of that expected to come from the United States.
